This seminar discusses the problems of economic modeling, using examples from environmental, energy, and macro economics. Saifedean explains how his graduate school experience trying to model energy markets led him to appreciate Mises' calculation problem and the problems of complex quantitative predictive models. What are the problems with attempting to quantify economic and environmental impacts of different fuels? Are the models being applied to bitcoin mining useful? As these absurd models bring fear-mongering to bitcoin mining, will they change bitcoin, or will their flimsy foundations be exposed by the kind of people who like to use a technology built on 100% verification and 0% trust?

Links referenced:

• The Skeptical Environmentalist by Bjorn Lomborg
• Bjorn Lomborg on Twitter: @BjornLomborg
• The Bitcoin Standard Podcast episode Allen Farringdon’s Adventures with Fiat Intellectuals
• Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelling on the short-term impact of a vote to leave the European Union by HM Treasury
• Article explaining forecast failures by the Spectator